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INTERVIEW

Anchoring the recovery

The recovery needs to be firm, solid and sustainable, President Christine Lagarde tells Politico EU. We are at a turning point, heading firmly towards a return to pre-pandemic levels, but we must anchor the recovery before reducing support to the economy.

Interview

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Civil war declaration: On April 14th and 15th, 2012 Federal Republic of Germany "_urkenstaats"s parliament, Deutscher Bundestag, received a antifiscal written civil war declaration by Federal Republic of Germany "Rechtsstaat"s electronic resistance for human rights even though the "Widerstandsfall" according to article 20 paragraph 4 of the constitution, the "Grundgesetz", had been already declared in the years 2001-03. more

SPEECH 15 June 2021

Cash still king during the pandemic

Faster digitalisation does not mean the end of cash, says Executive Board member Fabio Panetta. There is demand for it and we will guarantee that cash continues to be available and accepted in the future, even if we launch a digital euro.

Speech
SPEECH 14 June 2021

From market neutrality to market efficiency

We at the ECB can act as a catalyst to accelerate the transition to a carbon-neutral economy in line with our mandate, says Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. Shifting from market neutrality to market efficiency would be an important step in acknowledging climate externalities.

Speech
PUBLICATION 19 May 2021

Explore inflation in a new interactive way

Explore how euro area inflation differs between countries and products over time and find your personal inflation rate in our new interactive tool available in 23 EU languages.

Statistics Insights
15 June 2021
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT
Annexes
15 June 2021
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
11 June 2021
EURO AREA SECURITIES ISSUES STATISTICS
10 June 2021
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
8 June 2021
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT
Annexes
8 June 2021
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
7 June 2021
MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
15 June 2021
Keynote speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Deutsche Bundesbank’s 5th International Cash Conference – “Cash in times of turmoil”
English
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14 June 2021
Welcome address by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB DG-Research Symposium “Climate change, financial markets and green growth”
10 June 2021
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 10 June 2021
3 June 2021
Speech by Frank Elderson, Chair of the Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System, Member of the Executive Board and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at The Green Swan Conference – Coordinating finance on climate
2 June 2021
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, on the occasion of the awarding of the Prix Turgot 2021, Paris
English
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14 June 2021
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Johanna Treeck and Florian Eder on 11 June 2021 in Frankfurt
28 May 2021
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Balazs Koranyi, Frank Siebelt and Francesco Canepa
26 May 2021
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jun Ishikawa
English
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10 May 2021
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert and Marie Charrel
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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8 May 2021
Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Annemiek Leclaire
English
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11 May 2021
Blog post by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
Details
Summary
Climate change and sustainability are global challenges that require global solutions, especially in the financial sector, writes Executive Board member Fabio Panetta. We need international disclosure standards and principles to categorise sustainable activities.
1 April 2021
Blog post by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
Details
Summary
The recent volatility of inflation can largely be attributed to the nature of the pandemic shock, writes Chief Economist Philip R. Lane. The increase in inflation during early 2021 does not constitute the basis for a sustained shift in inflation dynamics.
25 March 2021
Blog post by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, and Ulrich Bindseil, ECB Director General Market Infrastructure and Payments
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (3) +
Details
Summary
At the ECB we are committed to understanding people’s needs and ensuring the digital euro would be widely accepted, writes Executive Board member Fabio Panetta with Ulrich Bindseil in The ECB Blog.
22 March 2021
Blog post by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB
Details
Summary
Our pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) has provided crucial support to euro area citizens since its launch a year ago, writes President Christine Lagarde in The ECB Blog. The PEPP has been, and remains, at the core of our pandemic policy response.
18 March 2021
Blog post by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB
Details
Summary
The damage caused by more frequent and severe natural disasters far exceeds the costs of transitioning to a greener economy, writes Vice-President Luis de Guindos in his ECB Blog post on our first climate stress test for banks and companies.
14 June 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2566
Details
Abstract
We use microdata to estimate the strength of price selection { a key metric for the effect of monetary policy on the real economy. We propose a product-level proxy for mispricing and assess whether products with larger mispricing respond with a higher probability to identified monetary and credit shocks. We find that they do not, suggesting selection is absent. Instead, we detect state-dependent adjustment on the gross extensive margin. Our results are broadly consistent with second-generation state-dependent pricing models and sizable effects of monetary policy on the real economy.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
10 June 2021
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
Annexes
4 June 2021
OTHER PUBLICATION
2 June 2021
THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO
Annexes
2 June 2021
THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO
2 June 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2565
Details
Abstract
Macro-prudential authorities need to assess medium-term downside risks to the real economy, caused by severe financial shocks. Before activating policy measures, they also need to consider their short-term negative impact. This gives rise to a risk management problem, an inter-temporal trade-off between expected growth and downside risk. Predictive distributions are estimated with structural quantile vector autoregressive models that relate economic growth to measures of financial stress and the financial cycle. An empirical study with euro area and U.S. data shows how to construct indicators of macro-prudential policy stance and to assess when interventions may be beneficial.
JEL Code
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
1 June 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2564
Details
Abstract
This paper provides new empirical evidence that bears on the efficacy of unconventional monetary policies when the main policy rate is negative. When a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) is deployed in concert with rate forward guidance (FG) and quantitative easing (QE), the identification of the impacts of these unconventional instruments of monetary policy is challenging. We propose a novel identification approach that seeks to overcome this challenge by combining a dense, controlled event study with forward curve counterfactuals that we construct using predictive rate densities derived from rate options. We find that NIRP has exerted a sizeable influence on the term structure of interest rates throughout maturities while, on net, the impact of rate FG has been more muted. QE explains the lion’s share of yield effects, particularly over the back end of the yield curve. We then feed these rate counterfactuals into a large-scale Bayesian VAR and generate alternative histories for the euro area macro-economy that one would likely have observed between 2013 and 2020 in no-NIRP (with or without FG) and in no-QE regimes. According to this conditional forecasting exercise, in 2019 GDP growth and annual inflation would have been 1.1 p.p. and 0.75 p.p. lower, respectively, and the unemployment rate 1.1 p.p. higher than they actually were, had the ECB abstained from using NIRP, FG and QE over the previous six years or so.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
C58 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Financial Econometrics
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
1 June 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2563
Details
Abstract
By focusing on the cost conditions at issuance, I find that not only the Covid-19 pandemic effects were different across bonds and firms at different stages, but also that the market composition was significantly affected, collapsing on investment-grade bonds, a segment in which the share of bonds eligible to the ECB corporate programmes strikingly increased from 15% to 40%. Contemporaneously, the high-yield segment shrunk to almost disappear at 4%. Another source of risk detected in the pricing mechanism is the weak resilience to pandemic: the premium requested is around 30 bp and started to be priced only after the early containment actions taken by the national authorities. On the contrary, I do not find evidence supporting an increased risk for corporations headquartered in countries with a reduced fiscal space, nor the existence of a premium in favour of green bonds, which should be the backbone of a possible “green recovery”.
JEL Code
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
1 June 2021
SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREA
31 May 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2562
Details
Abstract
Inflation targeting is implemented in different ways – most often by adopting point targets, by having tolerance bands around a point target, or by specifying target ranges. Using data for 20 economies, this paper tests whether the various target types affect the anchoring of inflation expectations at shorter horizons differently. It tests two contradictory hypotheses, namely that targets with intervals lead to (i) less anchoring, e.g. because they provide more flexibility to the central bank, or (ii) better anchoring, because they are missed less often, leading to an enhanced credibility. The evidence refutes the first hypothesis, and generally finds that target ranges or (in some cases) tolerance bands outperform the other types. However, the effects partially depend on the economic context and no target type consistently outperforms all others. This suggests that there are some benefits to adopting intervals, but the central bank can anchor inflation expectations also by other means.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
31 May 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2561
Details
Abstract
We decompose euro area sovereign bond yields into five distinct components: i) expected future short-term risk-free rates and a term premium, ii) default risk premium, iii) redenomination risk premium, iv) liquidity risk premium, and a v) segmentation (convenience) premium. Identification is achieved by considering sovereign bond yields jointly with other rates, including sovereign credit default swap spreads with and without redenomination as a credit event feature. We apply our framework to study the impact of European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy and European Union (E.U.) fiscal policy announcements during the Covid-19 pandemic recession. We find that both monetary and fiscal policy announcements had a pronounced effect on yields, mostly through default, redenomination, and segmentation premia. While the ECB's unconventional monetary policy announcements benefited some (vulnerable) countries more than others, owing to unprecedented flexibility in implementing bond purchases, the E.U.’s fiscal policy announcements lowered yields more uniformly.
JEL Code
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions

Interest rates

Marginal lending facility 0.25 %
Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) 0.00 %
Deposit facility − 0.50 %
18 September 2019 Past key ECB interest rates

Inflation rate

Inflation dashboard

Reference rates

USD US dollar 1.2108
JPY Japanese yen 133.28
GBP Pound sterling 0.86150
CHF Swiss franc 1.0899
Last update: Tuesday, 15 June 2021 Euro foreign exchange rates