Não disponível em português
Giovanni Lombardo
- 22 July 2014
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1696Details
- Abstract
- Often, numerical simulations for dynamic, stochastic models in economics are needed. Higher order methods can be attractive, but bear the danger of generating explosive solutions in originally stationary models. Kim-Kim-Schaumburg-Sims (2008) proposed pruning to deal with this challenge for second order approximations. In this paper, we provide a theory of pruning and formulas for pruning of any order. We relate it to results described by Judd (1998) on perturbing dynamical systems.
- JEL Code
- C63 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computational Techniques, Simulation Modeling
C02 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→General→Mathematical Methods
C62 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
- 10 February 2012
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1423Details
- Abstract
- We build a model of the euro area incorporating financial market frictions at the level of firms and households. Entrepreneurs borrow from financial intermediaries in order to purchase business capital, in the spirit of the "financial accelerator" literature. We also introduce two types of households that differ in their degree of time preference. All households have preferences for housing services. The impatient households are faced with a collateral constraint that is a function of the value of their housing stock. Our aim is to provide a unified framework for policy analysis that emphasizes financial market frictions alongside the more traditional model channels. The model is estimated by Bayesian methods using euro area aggregate data and model properties are illustrated with simulation and conditional variance and historical shock decomposition.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 11 May 2011
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1338Details
- Abstract
- A growing number of papers have studied positive and normative implications of financial frictions in DSGE models. We contribute to this literature by studying the welfare-based monetary policy in a two-country model characterized by financial frictions, alongside a number of key features, like capital accumulation, non-traded goods and foreign-currency debt denomination. We compare the cooperative Ramsey monetary policy with standard policy benchmarks (e.g. PPI stability) as well as with the optimal Ramsey policy in a currency area. We show that the two-country perspective offers new insights on the trade-offs faced by the monetary authority. Our main results are the following. First, strict PPI targeting (nearly optimal in our model if credit frictions are absent) becomes excessively procyclical in response to positive productivity shocks in the presence of financial frictions. The related welfare losses are non-negligible, especially if financial imperfections interact with nontradable production. Second, (asymmetric) foreign currency debt denomination affects the optimal monetary policy and has important implications for exchange rate regimes. In particular, the larger the variance of domestic productivity shocks relative to foreign, the closer the PPI-stability policy is to the optimal policy and the farther is the currency union case. Third, we find that central banks should allow for deviations from price stability to offset the effects of balance sheet shocks. Finally, while financial frictions substantially decrease attractiveness of all price targeting regimes, they do not have a significant effect on the performance of a monetary union agreement.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 14 December 2010
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1279Details
- Abstract
- We show that the composition of imports has important implications for the optimal volatility of the exchange rate. Using input-output data for 25 countries we document substantial differences in the import and non-tradable content of final demand components, and in the role played by imported inputs in domestic production. We build a business cycle model of a small open economy to discuss how the problem of the optimizing policy-maker changes endogenously as the composition of imports and of final demand is altered. Contrary to models where steady state trade openness is entirely characterized by home bias, we find that trade openness is a very poor proxy of the welfare impact of alternative monetary policies. Finally, we quantify the loss from an exchange rate peg relative to the Ramsey policy conditional on the composition of imports, using parameter values that are estimated from OECD input-output tables data. We find that the main determinant of the losses is the share of non-traded goods in final demand.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F02 : International Economics→General→International Economic Order
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 3 November 2010
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1264Details
- Abstract
- We show how to use a simple perturbation method to solve non-linear rational expectation models. Drawing from the applied mathematics literature we propose a method consisting of series expansions of the non-linear system around a known solution. The variables are represented in terms of their orders of approximation with respect to a perturbation parameter. The final solution, therefore, is the sum of the different orders. This approach links to formal arguments the idea that each order of approximation is solved recursively taking as given the lower order of approximation. Therefore, this method is not subject to the ambiguity concerning the order of the variables in the resulting state-space representation as, for example, has been discussed by Kim et al. (2008). Provided that the model is locally stable, the approximation technique discussed in this paper delivers stable solutions at any order of approximation.
- JEL Code
- C63 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computational Techniques, Simulation Modeling
E0 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General
- 31 January 2008
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 858Details
- Abstract
- We use a version of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) developed at the ECB in order to quantify the gains from monetary policy cooperation. The model is calibrated in order to match a set of empirical moments. We then derive the cooperative and (open-loop) Nash monetary policies, assuming that the central banks' objectives is to maximize the welfare of the households. Our results show that given the current degree of openness of the US and euro area economies, the gains from monetary policy coordination are small, amounting to 0.03 percent of steady-state consumption. Nevertheless, the gains appear to be sensitive to the degree of openness and further economic integration between the two regions could generate sizable gains from cooperation. For example, increasing the trade shares to 32 percent of GDP in both regions, the gains from cooperation rise to about 1 percent of steady-state consumption. By decomposing the sources of the gains from cooperation with respect to the various shocks, we show that mark-up shocks are the most important source for gains from international monetary policy cooperation.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
- 28 June 2007
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 770Details
- Abstract
- This paper compares the welfare implications of two widely used pricing assumptions in the New-Keynesian literature: Calvo-pricing vs. Rotemberg-pricing. We show that despite the strong similarities between the two assumptions to a first order of approximation, in general they might entail different welfare costs at higher order of approximation. In the special case of non-distorted steady state, the two pricing assumptions imply identical welfare losses to a second order of approximation.
- JEL Code
- E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
- 23 May 2005
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 487Details
- Abstract
- This paper shows how to compute a second-order accurate solution of a non-linear rational expectation model using algorithms developed for the solution of linear rational expectation models. The result is a state-space representation for the realized values of the variables of the model. This state-space representation can easily be used to compute impulse responses as well as conditional and unconditional forecasts.
- JEL Code
- C63 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computational Techniques, Simulation Modeling
E0 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General
- 11 November 2003
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 289Details
- Abstract
- A two-country sticky-price model is used to analyse the interactions between fiscal and monetary policy. The role of an 'activist' fiscal policy as a stabilisation tool is considered and a measure of the welfare gains from international fiscal policy cooperation is derived. It is found that welfare gains from fiscal cooperation do exist provided monetary policy is set cooperatively. There are also welfare gains from fiscal policy cooperation in a monetary union. However, it is found that a 'non-activist' fiscal policy can be better than non-cooperative fiscal policy when the international correlation of shocks is strongly negative. And non-cooperative fiscal policy can be better than cooperative fiscal policy if monetary policy is not set cooperatively.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission