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Latest results from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

Overview

This report contains the results for inflation expectations from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF).

Tables 1 and 2 provide a comparison of the latest SPF data with other expectations and projections for headline HICP inflation and HICP inflation excluding energy and food (HICPX inflation) respectively.

For more detailed information on the data contact the SPF team at ECB-SPF@ecb.europa.eu.



Table 1 - SPF results for HICP inflation in comparison with other expectations and projections

year-on-year percentage changes

Source: SPF, ECB staff macroeconomic projections and Consensus Economics.

Notes: Longer-term expectations refer to 2029.



Table 2 - SPF results for HICP inflation excluding energy and food (HICPX inflation) in comparison with other expectations and projections

year-on-year percentage changes

Source: SPF, ECB staff macroeconomic projections and Consensus Economics.

Notes: Longer-term expectations refer to 2029. HICPX also excludes alcohol and tobacco.

Expectations for HICP inflation

In the quantitative questionnaire, respondents are asked to provide their point forecasts for HICP headline inflation for six future target periods, expressed in year-on-year percentage changes. The questionnaire asks for annual average inflation for the current calendar year and the following two years, as well as for the longer term (which, depending on the timing of the survey may be as much as four or five calendar years in the future). It also asks for monthly forecasts for rolling horizons one and two years ahead of the latest published datapoint, as these support a more robust analysis of uncertainty surrounding the forecasts.
Besides the point forecasts, respondents are also asked to provide probability distributions using fixed bins.

Chart 1

Expectations for headline HICP inflation and HICP inflation excluding energy and food (HICPX inflation)

calendar year forecasts (annual percentage changes)

Source: SPF.

Notes: HICPX also excludes alcohol and tobacco.

Chart 2

Expectations for headline HICP inflation and HICP inflation excluding energy and food (HICPX inflation)

rolling horizons (annual percentage changes)

Source: SPF.

Notes: HICPX also excludes alcohol and tobacco.

Chart 3

Aggregate probability distributions

headline HICP inflation (x-axis: annual percentage changes; y-axis: probability, percentages)

2025
2026
2027
longer term

Source: SPF.

Notes: The SPF asks respondents to report their point forecasts and, separately, to assign probabilities to different ranges of outcomes.
This chart shows the average probabilities assigned to different ranges of inflation outcomes in 2025, 2026, 2027 and the longer term.
Longer-term expectations refer to 2029.

Chart 4

Aggregate probability distributions

HICP inflation excluding energy and food (HICPX inflation) (x-axis: annual percentage changes; y-axis: probability, percentages)

2025
2026
2027
longer term

Source: SPF.

Notes: Respondents are asked to report their point forecasts and, separately, to assign probabilities to different ranges of outcomes. This chart shows the average probabilities assigned to different ranges of inflation outcomes in 2025, 2026, 2027 and in the longer term.
Longer-term expectations refer to 2029.
HICPX also excludes alcohol and tobacco.

Chart 5

Measures of longer-term inflation expectations over time

(annual percentage changes)

HICP inflation
HICP inflation excluding energy and food (HICPX inflation)

Source: SPF.

Notes: HICPX also excludes alcohol and tobacco.

Chart 6

Distribution of point forecasts

headline HICP inflation (x-axis: annual percentage changes; y-axis: percentages of respondents)

one year ahead
two years ahead
longer term

Source: SPF.

Notes: Respondents are asked to report their point forecasts and, separately, to assign probabilities to different ranges of outcomes. This chart shows the spread of point forecast responses (rounded to the first decimal place).